That's what John Niles, a transportation consultant, tells me in the e-mail below. Niles declares that he is a volunteer advisor to the campaign that is opposing Proposition 1, the $17.9 billion ballot measure for Sound Transit. I offer up Niles' observations and a couple of attachments for your perusal because I don't have time to go investigate how much Portland, Denver and all those other cities spend on their light rail vs. buses. Here are a couple pdf's that Niles sent. One is a spreadsheet, the other is the Washington Policy Center's take ...

Here are a few highlights from some compelling arguments put forth by Eastside Rail Now at : http://www.eastsiderailnow.org/proposition_1_redo.html

1.   It would do little to reduce traffic congestion…”In fact, the plan could even increase congestion in some areas, such as the I-90 corridor.”

3.   Poor choices were made on selecting the rail routes.…”The most urgent need for rail transit on the Eastside by far is in the I-405 corridor (which would also be vastly cheaper than the I-90 corridor).”

4. It would downgrade some existing bus service. For example, several bus routes between Seattle and the Eastside would likely be eliminated or cut back in attempt to induce their riders to switch to the light rail line.

8.   Serious technical problems remain regarding use of the I-90 floating bridge. “Rail transit has never before been attempted on a floating bridge…”

9.   It would have an adverse effect on freight mobility. Constructing a rail line on the I-90 floating bridge would reduce the freight capacity of the region’s most important east-west road freight corridor.

14.   It is enormously expensive, despite only marginal benefits.  …”Furthermore, these are only the direct monetary costs — not included are a variety of other costs, including the opportunity costs, that is, the loss to the region from not using the same funds for more effective projects, such as lower cost rail lines with better routes.”

And here’s the kicker:

16.   It would preclude the region from taking on more worthy projects for decades. The region would become legally locked into this massive and unprecedented tax increase and its poorly planned projects for many years. Tax capacity would be exhausted for decades, and all flexibility to reduce taxes or to replace the Proposition 1 projects with more effective projects, including those that might become necessary due to changing circumstances, would be lost. 

It’s the Opportunity Cost, folks… see the link here

See their website at: http://www.eastsiderailnow.org/proposition_1_redo.html

Here is the first 10:

1.   It would do little to reduce traffic congestion.

2.   It would provide little environmental benefit.

3.   Poor choices were made on selecting the rail routes.

4.   It would downgrade some existing bus service.

5.   It would result in wasteful construction of duplicative facilities.

6.   The start of rail operations would be too slow.

7.   It is mainly a transit system for Seattle.

8.   Serious technical problems remain regarding use of the I-90 floating bridge.

9.   It would have an adverse effect on freight mobility.

10.   So-called “bus rapid transit” may not be effective.

Read all “29 Reasons to Vote No”  at : http://www.eastsiderailnow.org/proposition_1_redo.html

In an article in The Ballard Tribune regarding Reuven Carlyle’s candidacy for the 36th District state House seat, The Tribune reports:

“Another issue Carlyle said he wants to look at is the lack of coordination between city and state agencies, exemplified in the case of transportation.

The candidate said he requested master plans from Sound Transit, Metro and the Seattle Department of Transportation but noted they were all completely different and did not mesh together.

It is going to be increasingly important in the next years for the city and state to figure out how to link separate transportation components like bike paths, HOV lanes and light rail, he said.”

Interesting that the same subject (lack of coordination) was discussed at the Neighbors for Responsible Transportation Forum on October 4th.  Speaker Ted Lane brought up a lack of coordination in regional planning:

“The interface between north-south trips and east-west trips is very poor“, as well as the interface at the planned University station. They have “designed a system where there’s no compatibility between them“.

Lane went on to say that “buses work well in areas that are growing, where rail seems to work best in areas that are stable”, and far more dense (a higher # of persons per square mile).

Lane further commented that Sound Transit 2 (Prop 1) was “poorly thought out” and “would lock us in” to a course of action.

According to the Tacoma News Tribune, this is Ron Sims’ recent statement on why he voted against putting this plan on the ballot:

Statement of King County Executive Ron Sims on Sound Transit 2 ballot measure

“I have always enthusiastically supported the long-term vision of light rail, but this proposal does not respond to the immediate needs of people who want an alternative to $4.50 a gallon gas.

There is so little bus service, this proposal means that people will continue standing on crowded buses or worse, be left standing at a bus stop because the bus is too full. It means buses will remain crowded, and I fear it could create an environment where people are discouraged with transit. People need relief now not 15 years from now.

I worked hard to expand the bus portion of the package which would have had new bus service on our most congested corridors starting as early as next February. My bus proposal would have cost $136 million out of the $17.8 billion ballot measure and added 860,000 new bus service hours, accelerated the start of Transit Now service by three years and fully funded operation of 45 new buses on the Highway 520 corridor for four years. Unfortunately, my amendment did not pass and I could not support the overall plan.

While voting against the plan, I voted to put the measure on the ballot so people can decide for themselves. My personal opinion is that given the poor state of the economy, this is not the time to ask voters for a big tax increase, especially since the tax doesn’t respond to the demand for bus service we see right now.

King County Metro transit now serves a record 400,000 riders per day, which is more than Sound Transit will serve when this proposal is fully implemented in 15 years. I want an integrated transportation system that conveniently moves as many people as we can as soon as we can.”

Here’s Ted Van Dyk’s July 14th article in Crosscut, without the intro about the New Yorker Obama cover:

“Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels, chair of Sound Transit, remains in denial regarding the prospect that voters will approve this year what they overwhelmingly disapproved last year: a multibillion-dollar ballot measure principally financing light rail expansion through King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties. He is pressing fellow Sound Transit board members hard to vote later this month to go forward with the measure. As this is written, he lacks the necessary votes.

Nickels recently directed Sound Transit staff to expand, rather than limit, the scope of such a proposal in order to bring light rail more fully into all three counties and, thus, attract support from Pierce and Snohomish holdouts who saw the project as mainly benefiting Seattle and its near King County suburbs.

Nickels reportedly faces opposition on the Sound Transit board because many technical and engineering questions remain unanswered regarding the proposed expansion; the numbers attached to the proposal are questionable; and it does not contain sufficient provision for bus and bus rapid transit systems, which are less costly than light rail.

Nickels’ push for light rail expansion is analogous to his single-minded earlier push for a waterfront tunnel to replace the creaking Alaskan Way Viaduct. Gov. Chris Gregoire, House Speaker Frank Chopp, and other decisionmakers on the matter saw quite clearly that the tunnel was a no-go. Nickels’ tunnel vision resulted in a viaduct replacement being several years’ more distant than it otherwise would have been.

Chopp, speaking to a Seattle Neighborhood Coalition meeting last weekend, July 12, was outspoken regarding his frustration with City of Seattle delay and stubborness on the viaduct issue. He made the point that city officials involved seemed to see and hear only themselves.

The New York publishing world is not the only subculture characterized by unrealistic groupthink. We have such inbred subcultures right here in Seattle, inhabiting their own elevators. The first step is to cease denial and recognize that they exist.”

• Ted Van Dyk has been involved in, and written about, national policy and politics since 1961. His memoir of public life, Heroes, Hacks and Fools, was published this year by University of Washington Press, which has proposed its consideration for national and regional non-fiction awards. You can reach him in care of editor@crosscut.com.

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